Edited by W. Joseph Stroupe with the mission of explaining world events correctly via strategic analysis & forecasting
The fabric of the international geopolitical system constitutes the domain or the medium in which the nations of the globe conduct their political, economic and military business. As such, it includes both domestic and international factors, considerations and forces. Included are religious and political ideologies, cultures and practices, social and legal norms, technologies related to transportation and communication, accepted financial and economic principles and values, weapons technologies and many other such factors.
For millenniums of time from the reign of ancient Egypt as the first world power about 2300 BC until after the establishment of the British Empire by 1763 AD, the fabric of the international geopolitical system endured no swift or fundamental, massive alteration. The fabric changed only modestly and very slowly during those past millenniums. Compared to the colossal and speedy fundamental changes that have occurred since the dawning of the 20th century, those occurring throughout the millenniums prior were only incremental in nature and transpired virtually at the speed of frozen molasses.
Part I of this book examines the makeup of the fabric and the pattern of world orders it was and is now able to sustain, from the ancient past until today. The examination includes an analysis of the gigantic changes that began to occur near the dawning of the 20th century and the commanding impact they continue to have right up until today as respects what configuration of world order can now be sustained.What is the future of the US-dominated unipolar order that was born in 1991 with the collapse of the Soviet Union? Many recognize the current unipolar order is in transition, but in transition to what? Will a “multi-polar” order take its place? Or will the fabric dictate a return to rough bipolarity? What influence has the fabric on such developments, how does it exert such influence, and precisely where is our world headed?
In PART I the author employs the vivid imagery of the famous ancient geopolitical analogy (attributed to King Nebuchadnezzar I of Babylon in 7th century BC) of the Amalgam Kingdom, that is, the kingdom made partly of iron and partly of clay, to illustrate fundamental changes in the fabric of the international system that occurred near the dawning of the 20th century and that powerfully govern geopolitical developments to this very day
Dawn of the 20th Century a Fundamental Turning Point
Unipolarity Throughout the Pages of History Past
Industrial Revolution Undermines the Foundations of Empire
Review
Introduction and Review
The “Clay” Arises
The Role of International Organizations and Institutions
The Powerful Role of Christendom's Religious Organizations
Sectional Conclusion
Introduction
The Amalgam Kingdom Faces External Challengers
Two Hot-War Challenges from Iron-Like Germany
The Roots of the Cold War Challenge from Iron-Like Russia
Russia’s 2nd Challenge to the Amalgam Kingdom
Learning to Build Power Blocs Instead of Building Empires?
The Amalgam Kingdom’s Fatal Step Backward In Time
Overall Conclusion and Forecast
Introduction and Background
Deep Incursions by the Amalgam Kingdom
Russian Pushback Against American Incursions
The Post-9/11 Strategy of the Metallic Kingdoms
The "New" Strategy of the Amalgam Kingdom
Which Side will Prevail in the Neo Cold War Rivalry?
Iron Exhibits Some Flexibility, But Remains Iron
The Lessons of Georgia's Rose Revolution
The Lessons of Ukraine's Orange Revolution
This Is Not 1989-1991!
Economic Warfare by the Amalgam Kingdom Can Only Backfire
Summary and Forecast
The Shift Toward Asymmetrical Bipolar Complexity
In Part I we saw that the altered fabric of the international system forcefully casts global developments into the sphere of rough bipolarity and that unipolarity has become merely a temporary, short-lived aberration enjoyed by the US since 1991. The current unipolar order has already moved deep into transition since the Iraq invasion of 2003, with lopsided bipolarity being the impending eventuality when the transition is soon completed.
Part II of this book examines the 1991 birth of the fleeting unipolar world order, the strategic blunders made by the US in attempting to maintain and extend its global dominance, the reactions to US hegemony, and the strategies of US rivals attempting to undermine that hegemony. Also examined in this section is the ominous and immensely important strategic economic decline of the US and how it is creating key opportunities for US rivals in their quest to scupper US-led unipolarity.
The contents of Part II provide the background, context and proof that the current unipolar order truly is in fundamental transition and that lopsided bipolarity will be the resulting configuration of the world order when the transition is completed.
Tectonic Shifts Setting the Stage for Follow-On Events
Gulf War I
Awesome Display of High-Tech Weaponry
Component Parts of the Cold War Refusing to Die
Philosophical Redefinitions in the Approach to Power
Asymmetrical Levers to Power
The Proven Success of the Asymmetric Philosophy
Reacquisition of Global Influence: Formulation of Russia's Strategy
The Strategy Proves Itself in the Iraq Crisis
Which Side Possesses A Coherent Strategy?
Sowing the Seeds of Future Tectonic Shifts
The East Seizes the Global Economic Initiative
The U.S. Complicit In Its Own Decline
Clever Two-Track Diplomacy of America’s Rivals
The Strategy in Motion to Counterbalance the US
The Iraq Crisis – Tuning the Multilateral Model
Westphalia v. Unilateral Preemptive War
Acceleration Toward Bipolarity
“Evil Axis” Member Iran: The Latest Nexus of East -West Rivalry
Global Complexity, Ambiguity Equate to Instability
At the Vortexes - Bigger Powers, Bigger Forces at Play
Shiite Iran in the Ascendancy
Iran Also Realizing Its Wider Geopolitical Goals
America, the "Decaying Power"
What Happens if the US Strikes Iran?
North Korea’s Bid to Marginalize the US in SE Asia
Japan Increasingly Succumbing to Russia-China
‘Axis of Evil’ Proxies: Damaging the US Global Image
Evidence the Dollar Endgame Nears
The Invincible Enemy: Mounting Debt
Rising Interest Rates: The Self-Destruct Lever
The Fed: Little Choice but to Pull the Lever
Nearing the Collapse of the Asset-Based Model
Economic Repercussions Now Settling In
A Review of Unfolding Events of the Past Five Years
Black Gold’s Profound Effects Not Diluted After All
Fed’s Self-Made Catch-22 Comes Back to Haunt It
Rising Interest Rates only Briefly Bolster Dollar
Incremental Global Diversification out of the Dollar
US-Dominated Order Coming Unglued
New Implications of the Impending US Economic Downturn
A Different Kind of Downturn Knocks at the Door
The Fed Deals the Trump Card to Energy Prices
Energy Rules Supreme in the US Economy – Thank the Fed
US Rivals are Watching and They Have a Backup Plan
Ongoing Dilution of the Old US-Centric Order
The Global Economic Compass Increasingly Points East
In Part II we saw that US hegemony since 1991 has been exercised recklessly and irresponsibly as if no end to US global domination and leadership were possible. We also saw that US strategic blunders themselves have helped to guarantee a swift end to US-led unipolarity. Further, we saw the reactions of the multi-polar crowd to US hegemony, and examined their effective strategies for undermining unipolarity.
Part III of this book examines the strategies of Russia and China under greater illumination and lays bare a striking new development that has become the centerpiece of their strategies – the ongoing and accelerated creation of an entirely new strategic resources-based multi-national entity that poses the greatest risk to the West ever encountered. Not only is evidence brought to bear to prove the existence of the joint strategy to create such an entity, but also to establish beyond any reasonable doubt that it is already too late to prevent its completion and operation.
Also examined are (1) the inescapable fact that the new entity now under construction will possess the distinct ability to exercise a checkmate over the West whenever so desired by the multifarious East, and (2) the advance financial arrangements already underway in preparation for the exercise of such a checkmate. Finally, as a conclusion to the book, a strategic forecast is presented.
Seven Years of Economic and Geopolitical Insight
Lessons Learned
The Rise of the Resources-Based Corporate State
Russia’s Chosen G-8 Theme Provides Important Clues
Russia Already Shaping the Trend Toward a New Model
Russian Plans for Ruble-Based Resource Bourses
The Form and the Global Leverage of RUBICON
Graphical Illustrations
The Economies of the East Boost Independence from the US
East Asia Achieving Greater Leverage over the US
Increasing Immunization against a Dollar Collapse
Central Bankers have a Prudent Strategy
Replacing Dollar Pegs with Pegs to a Basket of Currencies
© Copyright 2004-2008 This article may not be reproduced, reprinted or otherwise disseminated, nor may its inherent distinctive and original ideas be used elsewhere without the prior written permission of W. Joseph Stroupe. No journalistic, analytical, editorial or forecasting substance from GeoStrategyMap.com may be republished or employed in any form without prior written permission. Send all requests for permission by email to: editor_in_chief@geostrategymap.com. |
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